2014 ZiPS Projections 8211 Oakland Athle

  • After having typically appeared within the entirely venerable pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborskis ZiPS projections were released at FanGraphs this past year. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for that Oakland Athletics. Szymborski can be found at ESPN as well as on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

    Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Chicago AL / Chicago NL / Cincinnati / Cleveland / Colorado / Detroit / Houston / Kansas City / Los Angeles AL / La NL / Miami / Milwaukee / Minnesota / New York AL / Ny NL / Philadelphia / Pittsburgh / North park / Seattle / St. Louis / Tampa Bay / Texas / Toronto / Washington.

    BattersWhat the depth-chart graphic below doesnt represent very well, what is still the case with the Oakland As, is that theyll apt to be getting value from players who arent proper starters. Of particular note in this regard is outfielder Craig Gentry, to whom Oakland traded Michael Choice and a friend to Texas this offseason. Gentrys defensive figures during the last three season happen to be, speaking in very technical sabermetric terms, entirely bananas. Accordingly, its not so unexpected to see him get a very optimistic projection here (2.4 zWAR) in only 300 or so plate appearances.

    Also of note: John Jaso is projected like a catcher here, but is likely to obtain a significant numbers of plate appearances perhaps the bulk of these at DH. A poor defensive catcher still gets to be a pretty substantial rise in value by way of positional adjustment in accordance with a delegated hitter, certainly. Expecting him to create two wins inside a DH capacity may be unrealistic. Billy Butler posted a 116 wRC+ last season, for instance, while DH-ing almost exclusively but still produced only a 1.4 WAR.

    PitchersThe starting pitchers within the depth-chart graphic here are arranged not so as of expected rotation slot, but instead by projected WAR according to ZiPS. What doing that reveals is how Sonny Gray, and probably not Jarrod Parker, is maybe the staff ace. What it really also reveals is the fact that Tommy Milone, currently not likely to be contained in the opening-day rotation, is projected like a pitcher who probably should be.

    Elsewhere, you find that Scott Kazmirs projection (1.0 zWAR) isnt a particularly favorable one. The reason behind that, though, appears due le s to mediocrity on a rate basis and more to a pretty conservative innings projections (91.1). This isnt particularly strange for a pitcher who returned in 2013 following nearly a full two-year layoff.

    Bench/ProspectsGiven both his (a) skills and (b) performances relative to age/level, its not surprising to Seantrel Henderson Jersey learn that shortstop Addison Ru sell is among the top prospects in baseball. Whats perhaps more surprising is that Ru sell, whos recorded just 13 cursory plate appearances above High-A ball, is projected already to create wins at a league-average rate in the majors. He would appear, only at that juncture, to become considerably more advanced than the majority of the other rookie-eligible players in the Oakland system.

    Depth ChartBelow is a rough depth chart for that present incarnation from the As, with rounded projected WAR totals for every player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

    Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by means of those right here at site and authors own haphazard reasoning.

    Batters, Counting Stats

    PlayerBAgePOPARH2B3BHRRBISBCSJosh DonaldsonR283B61575142312197573Coco CrispB34CF515741222251353275Yoenis CespedesR28LF612841472442586116Josh ReddickL27RF55467120264196683Craig Mario Williams JerseyGentryR30CF3083468113222194Jed LowrieB30SS48856116272135410Derek NorrisR25C4064973171124271John JasoL30C308366715163431Addison Ru sellR20SS529581102241046173Alberto CallaspoB312B5245412121095532Brandon Mo sL301B52468112242267853Stephen VogtL29C49851114233105111Shane PetersonL26CF5015497202847103Luke MontzR30C3203359140123922Daric BartonL281B5135710323174732Hiroyuki NakajimaR31SS5195712320255485Eric SogardL282B4334999193436104Chris GimenezR31C327336612042612Corey BrownL28CF50654921931549105David FreitasR25C413408018073800Michael TaylorR28RF51956107231125583Nick PuntoB36SS24423489111632Jose MartinezR282B4514810319264432Jake GoebbertL26LF51557101204125142Andy ParrinoB28SS449448219253642Miles HeadR233B352357414273011Conner Crumbli sL27LF5636096182738135Nate FreimanR271B4624299201115611Tyler LadendorfR263B462428618263442Anthony AliottiL261B5825611322185122Dusty ColemanR27SS5614689224741106Jeremy BarfieldR25RF4614291171104311

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    Batters, Rates and Averages

    PlayerPABB%K%ISOBABIPBAOBPSLGwOBAJosh Donaldson6158.6%18.9%.167.292.257.327.424.330Coco Crisp5158.9%12.2%.154.279.265.328.419.330Yoenis Cespedes6127.2%19.6%.191.293.263.322.454.335Josh Reddick5548.8%20.6%.184.274.242.309.426.318Craig Gentry3087.5%16.9%.085.303.251.329.336.302Jed Lowrie4888.2%15.2%.159.288.263.324.422.325Derek Norris40612.8%28.8%.159.277.211.319.370.310John Jaso30813.6%14.6%.134.289.258.365.392.340Addison Ru sell5297.4%27.2%.125.305.229.295.354.294Alberto Callaspo52410.1%9.5%.104.274.261.335.365.308Brandon Mo s5249.2%27.7%.227.288.240.317.467.338Stephen Vogt4986.2%16.7%.129.280.248.294.377.292Shane Peterson50110.2%25.9%.109.291.220.305.329.286Luke Montz3209.1%29.7%.175.260.207.284.382.290Daric Barton51313.3%16.6%.106.277.237.342.343.309Hiroyuki Nakajima5194.8%17.5%.082.301.256.297.338.279Eric Sogard4337.4%12.5%.094.283.253.312.347.292Chris Gimenez3279.5%20.2%.082.279.228.305.310.274Corey Brown5068.3%36.0%.154.296.202.273.356.276David Freitas4139.2%22.5%.105.270.217.298.322.281Michael Taylor5198.9%22.4%.131.279.230.303.361.296Nick Punto24410.2%20.9%.066.290.226.305.292.264Jose Martinez4514.4%10.9%.098.262.245.283.343.272Jake Goebbert5159.3%22.3%.140.266.221.300.361.293Andy Parrino4498.5%27.4%.095.279.204.280.299.257Miles Head3525.7%30.1%.120.312.226.278.346.277Conner Crumbli s56313.0%21.8%.090.254.202.313.292.278Nate Freiman4626.5%21.4%.130.278.235.292.365.290Tyler Ladendorf4626.7%24.0%.095.261.204.266.299.253Anthony Aliotti58210.1%30.6%.093.315.219.301.312.277Dusty Coleman5616.6%43.1%.099.308.174.237.273.229Jeremy Barfield4616.5%22.3%.115.257.215.267.330.263

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    Batters, A sorted Other

    PlayerPARC/27OPS+DefzWARNo.1 CompJosh Donaldson6155.110953.8Pinky HigginsCoco Crisp5155.510823.1Chuck HintonYoenis Cespedes6125.311522.8Rondell WhiteJosh Reddick5544.7104102.5Je sie ReidCraig Gentry3084.487132.4Esteban GermanJed Lowrie4885.0107-62.3Rich AuriliaDerek Norris4064.293-32.0Josh WillinghamJohn Jaso3085.3113-51.9Ellie RodriguezAddison Ru sell5293.98111.9Dick SchofieldAlberto Callaspo5244.597-31.7Edgardo AlfonzoBrandon Mo s5245.2116-31.6Dan PasquaStephen Vogt4984.087-61.4Jerry NarronShane Peterson5013.67821.2Ryan SpilborghsLuke Montz3203.685-11.2Dave DuncanDaric Barton5134.19441.0Mike TwardoskiHiroyuki Nakajima5193.678-10.9Manny TrilloEric Sogard4334.085-10.9Mike GatesChris Gimenez3273.273-20.7Dave TothCorey Brown5063.37510.6Jon van EveryDavid Freitas4133.374-70.5Adam MelhuseMichael Taylor5193.98500.4Cliff BrumbaughNick Punto2443.16910.4Gene MichaelJose Martinez4513.47500.3Mike RichardtJake Goebbert5153.88500.3Brad BierleyAndy Parrino4492.86310.2Ryan OwensMiles Head3523.374-3-0.1Pete DempseyConner Crumbli s5633.2720-0.3Troy ThomasNate Freiman4623.783-3-0.7Frank JacobsTyler Ladendorf4622.758-3-0.7Ryan StegallAnthony Aliotti5823.2731-0.9Dale HolmanDusty Coleman5612.1433-0.9Austin ManahanJeremy Barfield4613.067-2-1.0John Lindsey

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    Pitchers, Counting Stats

    PlayerTAgeGGSIPSOBBHRHRERSonny GrayR243331185.316370141717873Dan StrailyR253131175.716068201598075Tommy MiloneL272928168.314034211687671A.J. GriffinR263131183.715750271728781Jarrod ParkerR253030174.013363181648176Sean DoolittleL2767069.076195562422Scott KazmirL30171791.3863310864441Ryan CookR2769068.773285572523Drew PomeranzL252625123.010562141176460Jim JohnsonR3169072.052185672826Luke GregersonR3069062.754195562523Dan OteroR2956068.344125692826Jesus CastilloR3039563 Richie Incognito Jersey .339205642927Je se ChavezR3038889.3712910894542Eric OFlahertyL2946041.033134371615Jose FloresR2553060.350264572725Raul AlcantaraR212824134.07339171497671Evan ScribnerR2849062.752216602927Josh LindblomR27481195.7703913965148Fernando AbadL2855360.748197613028Fernando NieveR3122965.346268683634Pat NeshekR3350047.037156462221Kyler NewbyR2949057.747266552826Fernando RodriguezR3047052.755276472624Hideki OkajimaL3837043.030135442221Carlos HernandezL272720122.36846171377368Arnold LeonR25261285.0472612955047Philip HumberR313117115.77840171236864Michael YnoaR22211960.741378643936Deryk HookerR2550059.042278603331Chris ResopR3155062.048259653533Andrew GranierR252727140.010390201479185Matt BuschmannR302623126.37977191408781

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    Pitchers, Rates and Averages

    PlayerIPTBFK%BB%BABIPERAFIPERA-FIP-Sonny Gray185.379720.5%8.8%.2893.543.559091Dan Straily175.775421.2%9.0%.2803.844.0698103Tommy Milone168.370719.8%4.8%.2893.803.689794A.J. Griffin183.777320.3%6.5%.2713.974.15101106Jarrod Parker174.074917.8%8.4%.2763.934.05100103Sean Doolittle69.028227.0%6.7%.2832.872.697369Scott Kazmir91.339321.9%8.4%.2914.043.8110397Ryan Cook68.729125.1%9.6%.2873.013.217782Drew Pomeranz123.054819.2%11.3%.2854.394.49112115Jim Johnson72.030117.3%6.0%.2793.253.338385Luke Gregerson62.726320.5%7.2%.2803.303.358486Dan Otero68.328615.4%4.2%.2883.423.368786Jesus Castillo63.327414.2%7.3%.2873.843.9298100Je se Chavez89.338618.4%7.5%.2934.234.06108104Eric OFlaherty41.017319.1%7.5%.2703.293.558490Jose Flores60.326418.9%9.9%.2933.733.639593Raul Alcantara134.059012.4%6.6%.2914.774.69122120Evan Scribner62.726919.3%7.8%.2873.883.779996Josh Lindblom95.742216.6%9.2%.2814.524.70115120Fernando Abad60.726218.3%7.2%.2924.154.04106103Fernando Nieve65.329015.9%9.0%.2914.684.64119119Pat Neshek47.020218.3%7.4%.2804.024.06103104Kyler Newby57.725418.5%10.2%.2854.064.26104109Fernando Rodriguez52.723223.7%11.6%.2894.103.8410598Hideki Okajima43.018616.1%7.0%.2874.404.11112105Carlos Hernandez122.355012.4%8.4%.2925.005.08128130Arnold Leon85.037612.5%6.9%.2904.984.91127125Philip Humber115.751015.3%7.8%.2864.984.73127121Michael Ynoa60.728314.5%13.1%.2905.345.47136140Deryk Hooker59.026415.9%10.2%.2844.734.90121125Chris Resop62.027617.4%9.1%.2934.794.58122117Andrew Granier140.065715.7%13.7%.2935.465.61139143Matt Buschmann126.359613.3%12.9%.2945.775.83147149

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    Pitchers, A sorted Other

    PlayerIPK/9BB/9HR/9ERA+zWARNo. 1 CompSonny Gray185.37.923.400.681093.1Jason SchmidtDan Straily175.78.203.481.021012.3Mike BieleckiTommy Milone168.37.491.821.121022.3Frank TananaA.J. Griffin183.77.692.451.32972.1Ben McDonaldJarrod Parker174.06.883.260.93982.1Frank SeminaraSean Doolittle69.09.912.480.651351.0Dan PlesacScott Kazmir91.38.483.250.99961.0Randy WolfRyan Cook68.79.563.670.661280.9Jim KernDrew Pomeranz123.07.684.541.02880.8David WestJim Johnson72.06.502.250.631190.7Terry LeachLuke Gregerson62.77.752.730.721170.6Hector CarrascoDan Otero68.35.801.580.661130.6Terry FoxJesus Castillo63.35.552.840.711010.5Jim ToddJe se Chavez89.37.162.921.01910.4Carlos ReyesEric OFlaherty41.07.242.850.881170.4Bobby SeayJose Flores60.37.463.880.601040.3Anthony ChavezRaul Alcantara134.04.902.621.14810.2Bob TewksburyEvan Scribner62.77.463.010.861000.2Hipolito PichardoJosh Lindblom95.76.583.671.22860.1John CostelloFernando Abad60.77.122.821.04930.1Erasmo RamirezFernando Nieve65.36.343.581.10830.1Aaron SmallPat Neshek47.07.092.871.15960.0Blas MinorKyler Newby57.77.334.060.94950.0Jason BoydFernando Rodriguez52.79.394.611.02940.0Bart MiadichHideki Okajima43.06.282.721.0588-0.2Boom-Boom Percy Harvin Jersey BeckCarlos Hernandez122.35.003.391.2577-0.2Andy Van HekkenArnold Leon85.04.982.751.2778-0.2Dicky GonzalezPhilip Humber115.76.073.111.3278-0.2Jason RoachMichael Ynoa60.76.085.491.1972-0.3Tim HarrellDeryk Hooker59.06.414.121.2282-0.4Buddy CarlyleChris Resop62.06.973.631.3181-0.5Dave WainhouseAndrew Granier140.06.625.791.2971-0.9Scott KamienieckiMatt Buschmann126.35.635.491.3567-1.3Michael Smith

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    Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances haven't been invested in predicted playing amount of time in the majors most of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production a .240 ZiPS projection might end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or otherwise a player will play is among many non-statistical factors one has to consider when predicting the future.

    Players are listed with their most recent teams unle s Dan makes a mistake. This is extremely po sible as many minor-league signings are usually unreported in the offseason.

    ZiPS is projecting in line with the AL using a 4.04 ERA and the NL using a 3.81 ERA.

    Players which are likely to be out because of injury continue to be projected. More details are always much better than le s information and a computer isnt what should be projecting damages status of, for instance, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

    Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and also the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror pictures of one another. Writes Patriot: ERA+ does not tell you that a pitchers ERA was X% le s or even more compared to leagues ERA. It tells you the leagues ERA was X% le s or even more compared to pitchers ERA.

    Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which come in full discharge of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against and might karate chop anyone guilty of merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to create projected team WAR.